Motilal Oswal, chairman and managing director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, tells Puneet Wadhwa that with Moody's upgrading India's sovereign rating and earnings growth coming back, the country will remain a hot destination for foreign investors.
Even as rising crude oil prices, trade war fears and a sliding rupee cast a shadow on market sentiment, Nischal Maheshwari, chief executive officer for institutional equities and advisory at Centrum Broking, tells Puneet Wadhwa that in the next one year, the outcome of the 2019 general election is a bigger challenge for the market.
There is a lot of optimism across all markets and a large part of it is justified, says Samir Arora of Helios Capital Management.
'If one believes that the Indian stock market will go up 70 per cent every year for the next 10 years, I wish you good luck!'
'Through the course of the year, we expect the economic weakness generated by demonetisation will give way to normalisation of growth conditions.'
Demonetisation impact, earnings growth, central bank policies will get attention.
'So, what does one believe -- just 6 stocks that are pushing the indices higher or the 600 scrips that are reflecting economic pain?'
'Investors hate uncertainty and the demonetisation move certainly creates that.'
Among these, Hindalco and Vedanta from the metal pack have become multi-baggers, gaining 100 per cent in 2016
Demonetisation, Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential elections, and the fear that US Fed may hike rates in the upcoming policy review in December have dented market sentiments, report Puneet Wadhwa & Deepak Korgaonkar.
Macro and micro environment are becoming more challenging.
'The probability of another negative year in 2019 is low.'
'The outcome of next year's assembly elections, macroeconomic indicators/corporate earnings growth and global events could keep the markets choppy.'
CLSA managing director & equity strategist Christopher Wood, and executive director Mahesh Nandurkar tell Puneet Wadhwa that the markets could give a return of around 10 per cent from the current level over the next year.
Sanjay Mookim, India equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, tells Puneet Wadhwa that this is not a time for investors to dabble in relatively small and illiquid stocks.
'Investors need to diversify at least 30% to 50% of their liquid wealth across different markets, asset classes, and instruments across the world.' 'Do this with proper guidance and advice.' 'Global investing is complicated, but if done right, is extremely rewarding.'
However, volatility is likely to be on the rise, said Benjamin Yeo, MD & CIO (Asia & Middle-East) for Wealth & Investment Management, Barclays.
'The Budget targets are achievable, but they require continued discipline and that the government sticks with the efforts to cut red tape and make business in India more efficient.'
'We believe 2017 could see higher flows from foreign institutions as money comes back to growth markets like India.'
'Allocate some parts of one's surplus income towards cryptocurrencies, considering the immense growth potential of this emerging asset class.'
'Markets are likely to remain choppy for the next 6 months.'
'Going ahead, I think the world trade will slow down or decline, and this will be bad for everybody.'
For rest of the year, the issue is largely going to be the balance between growth rates and macro stability versus interest rates, says Sankaran Naren.
'We think FY18 will end with a 10 to 12 per cent earnings growth, but FY19 will see a recovery to over 15 per cent.'
It was a roller-coaster week for the markets, amid talk of a fiscal stimulus by the government. Saurabh Mukherjea, chief executive officer, and Prashant Mittal, strategist, at Ambit Capital tell Puneet Wadhwa the recent flows into equity mutual funds are largely speculative in nature and pose a risk of reversal.
After enduring volatility for the first two months of calendar year 2016 (CY16), global equity markets have recouped some of the losses in March. Jigar Shah, chief executive officer, Maybank Kim Eng Securities, believes the next triggers for the rally will come from a soft landing in China and no recession situation in the US.
India remains an attractive destination and the recent sell-off has made valuations attractive in the large-cap space.
Jigar Shah, chief executive officer, Maybank Kim Eng Securities is not certain that the DMart listing would trigger a re-rating of the Indian retailing sector.
Mahesh Nandurkar, executive director and India Strategist at CLSA, talks to Puneet Wadhwa ahead of their 21st India Forum on his interpretation of how the markets have played out over the past few months, the road ahead, and his sector preferences in this backdrop.
As regards India, market valuations already reflect most positives.
RBI is expected to slash rates by 150 basis points till end-December 2016.
'The challenge in India will be reviving consumption/investment.' 'If the negative surprise in earnings is very sharp or lasts longer than March, it can trigger a sharp sell-off.'
Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term
A'Market valuation is another concern.'
'India is trading at steep valuations and there have been a number of IPOs, especially in the insurance sector, that have had an impact on secondary market liquidity.'
"While the risk of a correction goes up in the near term, on a long-term basis the Indian market is on an absolutely strong footing."
'I think the markets will move up given that there will be more money.'
'The market movement will be largely driven by earnings growth.'
'Equity investing should be for longer than a year's perspective.'
Non-resident Indians (NRIs) are very positive about India
Jim Rogers' decision not to invest now is not India-specific, but has to do with the problems relating to how the major global economies are shaping up.
